Sunday, September 16, 2018

Operation take Down Nadal

How to take down Nadal continues


Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Dominic Thiem vs Rafael Nadal 2018 US Open Quarterfinals 5 set thriller

Thiem deserved to win this match. But once again Nadal wins with his safer brand of tennis. Thiem went for more every shot and showed incredible ❤. He misses an overhead after 4 hours and 49 minutes to gift wrap the victory to Nadal. Hopefully Del Potro can beat this cancer on tennis next round. Nadal takes a dump on the progression of tennis shotmaking / artistry by winning with brute physicality and safely looping shots back. He plays just enough offense to win but never enough to wow anybody. Yes, his offensive weapons are top notch, but like Murray, defense is his default style of play. Watch that first set of this match if you want to be wowed. Thiem plays the type of tennis that would grow the game into mainstream culture if he was on top of the tennis world. From the standpoint of the type of shotmaking his opponents redline themselves to hit; Nadal is far less exciting to watch. Its just not possible, it seems, for anyone with good shotmaking or tennis artistry to keep it consistent enough to beat Nadal. He wins by default. He is not the GOAT. Would-be-GOATS just destruct against him. He is the definition of winning ugly. And he has the nerve to criticize Sampras and others who devoted time to mastering the serve and volley craft. Tennis purists know that Nadal is destroying the game.

Nadal's false humility makes it a sin for anyone to dislike him yet he is a fierce warrior dependent on his more talented opponents being soft. He is such an intense warrior if you lose concentration against him for a second it could be over. Agassi hated Sampras at the peak of their rivalry. Where is the competitive hatred for Nadal?   Why is this not acceptable in today's tennis circuit? I think that is the only mindset to beat Nadal a wining percentage of the time. Davydenko and Djokovic each have this calculated edge to them. They each possess a winning head to head versus Nadal. Something unattainable to someone who respects Nadal too much. Its time for each of his opponents to step on the court against him with the appropriate competitive hatred for Nadal. I and others have begun to doubt Nadal's opponents. We fear they haven't the belly to win against him. I fear they must deal with this on the tennis court in the worst possible way. Watch this whole match if you disagree.

All that being said, Nadal has the game to be the GOAT. In my opinion, for him to reach it he needs to make offense his default style of play each and and every point. He needs to always go for the sharpest angles possible; He must not be content with just keeping the ball in play. He must waste less time between points. Nadal needs to serve quicker and with more variety. He needs to hug the baseline and also learn all the aspects of the net game. And save his tremendous defense as a last resort. Then I'd wave the Egyptian palm branches over his feet. And he'd have a longer career.

Sunday, August 26, 2018

Federer exposes Nadal as fraud

In the second part of the video below Federer shows why a representation of Nadal as the greatest is fraudulent.
Here are highlights from that specific match only.


Monday, June 25, 2018

Roger Federer vs David Nalbandian 2004 Australian Open Quarterfinal / How to beat a counter puncher

 Serve as a Weapon
Federer utilizes a full shoulder tilt on his serve to get the maximum pace and direction. He isn't content to hit an easy serve with a low toss and zero power. To beat the counter puncher you need a powerful serve. Spend time developing your serve into a true weapon. Around 35 minutes Federer is down 5-5 15-40  and he hits two aces. So while the counter puncher is jogging, the champion practices their serve for these crucial moments.

Physical Conditioning
To beat the counter puncher you must be in great shape. You may have to be in better shape than the counter puncher because you have to move your feet more to play superior offensive tennis. Federer stays the course with this strategy, keeping his play consistent knowing his superior offense will win the match. He is not intimidated by Nalbandian's physical play because Federer is in great shape. Federer knows he can take the ball early and make Nalbandian run more than he has to. When two players are equal whoever does the most running usually loses. He will win this physical war. Federer pumps his fist after each successful play.  You need at least equal defense to the counter puncher to succeed. Your own slices and defense pay off against counter punchers. You should be happy drawing errors from them. The more consistent your offense the more errors they will make.

Down 4-3 in the second set;  Federer is brilliant by playing great defense forcing a counter puncher to play offense in a tight spot of the match Nalbandian can't do it. 15-30. Take them out of their comfort zone. They would prefer to counter punch. Take them out of that.  Federer then crushes the ball up the middle. Again forcing the counter puncher to create offense. Plays a great point where he takes offense and wins the point. Bewildering Nalbandian who launches a ball high in the sky.

Dealing with Bad Line Calls
When you encounter the problem of your opponent jipping you on calls you must counteract this by continuing to play your game and let the calls fall where they may. If the call is egregious Ask if they are sure? Stay focused and convert close to 100% of your game point chances. As you are at a disadvantage with the counter puncher cheating you on line calls. A perfect example of this is when Federer hits the ball on the line at 28:39. Nalbandian wants to call it out, but lucky for Federer the umpires are there to call it good. Another awful display of cheating is that of the Wake Forest players in their recent NCAA championship. Absolutely disgraceful that they call clearly in balls on the right sideline and baseline out. If a player like Nalbandian played for Wake Forest he would win all his matches. But you can't cheat with line calls at the pro level.

https://twitter.com/BraydenSchnur/status/990738100774092800

Develop a Complete Game
The other thing you must have to beat a counter puncher is to have a complete game. Offense, defense, variation and knowing when to play what. And of course being able to execute this. Federer has taken the time developing his game in this way. He therefore can expect to make a withdrawal during the match. Federer stays ahead in the score and plays defense with an eye towards finishing the point at net with a simple angled volley. This takes time and there are no short cuts. Keep your eye towards long term success in tennis.

 World Class Offense
       On another point Federer's defense forces Nalbandian to play some offense himself. And of course this counter puncher is not entirely built for it. Federer wins the set 7-5 after a long cross court backhand rally ended on an error by Nalbandian. Federer utilized his variety with a short slice up the line. Federer hits some great drop volleys. Expect to make some great shots at net if you want to beat a counter puncher. You simply have to finish off the points by making overheads and volleys to beat them. Rise to the challenge!  And Nalbandian sets the point up beautifully finishing with a volley.

       Lots of deep cross court shots forcing Nalbandian to cover the whole court. No one can. Then Federer is firing backhands down the line. He is very confident and very deliberate with these big shots. As you must against a pusher. Still its not just ripping every shot it is patiently waiting for your openings to then pull the trigger. If your game relies too much on the other playing missing you will never be number one in the world, that's for sure. You must have offense and defense to reign supreme. All things equal the man with superior offense will win.


Personal Experience
I once lost a match 0-6, 3-6 to Miles Holman when I was controlling the offense but he got everything back.I played another guy Max Epley who had beat Miles and lost 0-6, 0-6. This guy blew me off the court with offense. He told me Miles went for too much and the way to beat him was to play good defense. He seemed unaware he was a much better player than me and my matchup with Miles was different. 

Be Opportunistic
1:05:00 You want to keep the ball out of the middle but you can try for the middle to get your timing refined. If you try to hit it down the line sometimes you will hit it well wide. 4 consecutive unforced errors from Federer means 0-40 for Nalbandian.  But Nalbandian shows his true colors and chokes. He is just trying to tap the return instead of hitting it. Now Federer plays one of the most versatile points you will ever see. Defense then splendid offense to claw back to 30-40. But Federer makes the error 4-3 Nalbandian second set. You must hang in the match at all times. But the winner of the match is the person that rises up and steals the game points. The loser is the one who does not. Do you want to lose closely or not so closely? Or do you want to win closely or not so closely? How you play those key points will determine this plain and simple.

       Nalbandian has his nerve back. A run around inside out forehand from Federer is counter punched up the line by Nalbandian for the winner. This is what Nalbandian does best, feels comfortable doing.  4-4 all second set. This ninth game is the most crucial in the set. The loser will feel like every point down 4-5 is a set point. Do all you can to win the 4-4 all game.Federer does that in style. He is completely refreshed and reset his serving approach. He forgot all about the last game when he got broken, he is focusing on something new. Fed hits 4 straight huge serves to save energy and move on to the next game. Something a counter puncher can't do. Federer dancing like a ballet artist with quick strike tennis 0-15. Federer playing some good defense. Anticipates a drop volley from Nalbandian and doesn't panic. Calms his adrenaline and hits a finesse angled shot for a winner. Nalbandian proves me wrong with a big serve.
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Federer wins the second set. Nalbandian launches another ball into the seats as the umpire talks to him. Federer leads 7-5, 6-4. Surely Nalbandian will not go gently into this good night.


 PLAY  BY PLAY TO CONCLUDE MATCH
With those principles in mind. Here is the conclusion of the match: Here is the play by play with commentary: 

1:19:00  Federer leads 7-5, 6-4
 Federer looks so composed on the change over just going over his game plan and mentality.

In the 2nd set statistics there is not one stat where Nalbandian is superior to Federer. Impressively, Federer has more winners and less errors. He goes for a lot with his game and makes it.

They are showing the 2nd set highlights, these two produce an exciting brand of tennis, I'll give them that.

1:21:00
I cannot over emphasize how important the first point and first game are to start the crucial third set. In Federer's position he can put the match away by winning this set. He avoids rallies by slaying some monster serves. Federer is in a relaxed frame of mind and is just feeling the ball. It seems like a basketball to him.  But Nalbandian  is hitting some of the most spectacular shots I've seen. I think Federer expects to run through this set but with Nalbandian's shot making that might not happen. And now Federer feels the pressure and is just off on his put away forehand. Keep the ball going over the net, stay aggressive no matter how well the counter puncher plays. You have a shot with your offense, defense combo. Note the order. Come out and try to play offense each point. Play defense to stay in a point gone wrong. Then retake control.

That is the main difference between Federer and Murray. They have similar games but whereas Murray comes out each point playing defensively and maybe hitting an aggressive shot here and there. Federer comes out aggressive each point, and only plays defense if he has to steal a point. Slam totals Federer 20 Murray 3. And those 3 titles was when Murray played much more aggressively under the tutelage of Ivan Lendl. You want to go out and win your next match? Or participate in a boring push fest?

Nalbandian's counter punching is like a snake striking. Look out! Nalbandian earns several break points. But he is inefficient on conversion. Despite several Federer errors, a bad call in his favor that stopped Federer's momentum.Nalbandian cannot convert and throws his racquet. Forcing Federer to attempt to hit 3 straight aces to get out of ad out  and win the game.

1:38:00  Federer leads 7-5, 6-4, 2-1
Hitting on the run is a must against counter punchers. You need your racquet back and feet prepared to step into position to hit offensive shots on the run. Get into the groove Federer is in. I think rain is affecting the players. They may close the roof which would favor Federer. He needs more precision with his offensive shots. Nalbandian is slightly less precise on his shots. But more precise than a retriever who simply gets the ball back.

Federer not going for fast winners but playing Nalbandians game hitting the angles getting him moving all over the place. Wearing him down even if he doesn't win the points. this makes winners easier to hit. Although Nalbandian is superbly fit. Nalbandian losing his mind lol. Federer is staying on the baseline and just hitting them on the bounce making Nalbandian hit on the run.


Never hit a drop shot in the center of the court like Nalbandian did. Hit your approach shot to one side. Follow the ball to that side. Then hit the drop shot when they are on their heels. Give them the opportunity to hit the down the line shot wide. My explanation on approaching the net is below:


If Nalbandian could have consistently played like the 2:05:00 point he could win many majors.
Nalbandian earned that break. He defended all of Federer's shots and punished the short ball! 

2:18:00

Federer leads 2 sets to 1            7-5, 6-4, 5-7

Its not lost on me how talented Nalbandian is. He needs to be more offensive from the beginning. Nalbandian often doesn't set his alarm to mid match when he picks up his level of play. Federer can play great defense with the slice. All Nalbandian can is try to fake Federer out to miss the pass.

This 4th set is not as routine as Federer is making it look. He has to keep up this quality play. He needs to keep his foot on the gas with good offense. Federer closes out the match with two big serves. Nalbandian wanted to call the 30-30 serve out. But the umpires don't allow it. Gotta keep those rec players honest. When they call the lines bad, call the next shot they hit in the middle of the court out. Set the tone.

Federer wins the match 7-5, 6-4, 5-7, 6-3 in two hours 41 minutes

Biggest difference in the statistics. Federer 20 aces to Nalbandians 5
Federer 50 winners to Nalbandians 26.
Federer net points 23/29 to Nalbandian 13/23

Federer controlled the match as you must against a counter puncher. To get this match email me at bobbyhurleyjr@gmail.com. If you comment with a question and I don't answer email me at bobbyhurleyjr@gmail.com to remind me to comment on your question or statement.




Thursday, April 19, 2018

Chang vs Rios 1997 Australian Open Part 2

Never forget point at 1:20. That is how you construct a point. And Rios is so far ahead of the ball with his anticipation that he is never sprinting to the ball even when being run side to side. Instead he is just jogging. Chang responds showing he can control the net in the same way although he doesn't hit a volley. Same angles though. A great era of tennis this was. Although Goffin can do some of these tricks.

These two are vastly underrated. Rios is playing quality points from every aspect of the game. He can play up the middle keeping consistent shots with rhythm. He can hit aces. He can volley. He can hit winners on the run. He is an exciting player to watch. Very similar to Nick Kyrgios today. Even a similar name.

Both players can relax physically between the points prevented them from being tired. They never relax mentally until the match is over. The angles, the control, the speed, the winners. That controversial call when the lines person called the Rios serve out before it curved in for an ace. Instead it was a double fault that contributed to the crucial break in the 3rd set.


To get a copy of this part of the match; email me at bobbyhurleyjr@gmail.com.

Friday, September 8, 2017

Tennis Betting -2017 US Open Nadal vs Del Potro Predicition

Both Nadal and Del Potro are capable of winning this match. Both players have the intangibles. Del Potro plays the big hitting style of tennis that troubles Nadal. He is tall and can easily withstand Nadal's high topspin.

I would say Del Potro all the way based on their previous 2009 US Open meeting that Del Potro won 6-2, 6-2, 6-2. However, his average backhand speed was hit 13 mph faster back then. Del Potro has shown the ability to amp up his backhand in critical moments against Federer. Well guess what Del Potro? Every rally is going to be critical against Nadal. Del Potro doesn't have a physical limitation on his backhand side due to wrist surgeries. He is fine to move it either direction, it is largely mental reasons that withhold him from snapping his wrist before contact like he used to.

Fatigue is also not a factor for Del Potro, who has shown astonishing heart in his biggest matches. Remember too, the crowd is going to be pro Del Potro. He can truly take down any one with the right atmosphere. Nadal has shown vulnerability this 2017 US Open. Nadal certainly could win. But I think Del Potro is going to hit his backhand consistently well enough to give himself more forehands. And when he can hit enough forehands he will control the match.

Nadal has also struggled to be aggressive on his return. So Del Potro should at least hold comfortably on his service games.  Now its not a sure thing the outcome of this match. In fact, I can't guess how many sets victory will require or the score line.  But in betting terms Del Potro money line is around +250 depending on the sports book. With those kind of odds you don't have to be right more than 50 percent of the time to make money in the long term. I am saying to forget the totals and the spread as that is too unpredictable. And to take Del Potro +250 Moneyline. 

My disclaimer is to know the risks of rewards of sports betting. And to do so at a legalized sports book in Las Vegas.

So again. Take Del Potro +250 Moneyline .  On the basis of its an affordable gamble, and that the sports books may have made a mistake here.

Feel free to comment here before, during or after  the match. Even if its just general tennis talk. Also check out the rest of my blog. I have classic tennis matches I am willing to sell. I give analysis on matches. And I teach tennis lessons in person.

Cheers to a great match!